Immigrant Optimism and Educational Expectations

In my previous post, I wrote about what students in different countries think about their future education and career. This time, I looked more closely at differences between native and immigrant students and how these differences might reflect a broader idea often called immigrant optimism.

This concept usually refers to the tendency of immigrant families to hold higher educational and career aspirations than natives, even when their socioeconomic background is less favorable. But by comparing students’ expected education levels with their parents’ actual education, we can also think of immigrant optimism as a form of aspired upward mobility the hope to achieve more than one’s parents.

Parents’ Education

The first chart shows the share of students whose parents have higher education across different countries and immigrant groups. These numbers vary widely, and they already reveal some interesting contrasts.

Among native students, the highest proportions of parents with higher education are found in the Netherlands (79%), Finland (72%), Greece (68%), and Spain (68%). At the opposite end, the lowest levels are in the Czech Republic (41%), Serbia (42%), and Italy (44%).

Among immigrant families, we can also see clear leaders and outsiders.The countries with the most educated immigrant parents are:

• Austria, where 75% of first-generation and 70% of second-generation immigrant students have highly educated parents.

• Ireland, with 68% and 63%, respectively.

• Montenegro (MNE), where 62% of first-generation immigrant students have highly educated parents.

• The UK (GB), with 62% (first generation) and 63% (second generation).

At the other end, the lowest shares of highly educated immigrant parents are found in Italy (41% among first generation and 33% among second), Slovenia (40% and 33%), and Greece (36% and 33%).The United States also stands out: while 58% of first-generation immigrant students have parents with higher education, among the second generation it drops sharply to only 38%.

First vs. Second Generation: Changing Migration Patterns

The differences between first- and second-generation immigrants may reveal how migration evolves over time. These differences reflect the changing selectivity of migration flows: whether newer immigrants tend to be more or less educated than earlier ones.

In some countries, the newer wave of immigrants is more educated than earlier ones. This pattern is visible in Serbia, Montenegro, Ireland, and the Czech Republic, and also in the United States, Germany, Spain, and Austria. In these countries, first-generation immigrant students are more likely to have highly educated parents than second-generation immigrants, showing that recent migration tends to include more skilled or professionally educated groups.

However, even within this “new educated wave,” there are differences.In some countries such as Serbia, Montenegro, and Austria the share of highly educated parents among first-generation immigrants is actually higher than among natives, while in others including Slovenia, Spain and  Greece it remains lower than among natives, though still higher than among second-generation immigrants.

This contrast suggests that not all countries attract the same types of immigrants: while some receive increasingly selective, highly educated newcomers, others continue to experience migration primarily from less advantaged backgrounds.

Yet even in those countries that seem to attract more educated immigrants over time, the share of highly educated parents among immigrant families remains noticeably lower than among natives.This persistent gap may point to institutional and structural barriers that limit the inflow or integration of highly skilled migrants such as language demands, recognition of qualifications, labor market segmentation, or broader socioeconomic inequalities.In other words, even when migration becomes more selective, it does not necessarily lead to equal educational composition between immigrants and natives.

Expected Education — “Immigrant Optimism,” Version 1

Let’s now look at what students expect in terms of their future level of education, how many of them hope to obtain a higher education degree.

Among native students, the highest proportions of those expecting to complete higher education are found in Greece (81%), Montenegro (74%), Serbia (73%), and the United States (68%).The lowest expectations appear in Germany (41%), Finland (51%), and the United Kingdom (51%).

Among first-generation immigrant students, expectations for higher education are especially high in Austria (81%), the US (80%), Serbia (72%), and Ireland (73%).For second-generation immigrants, the highest shares are again found in Austria (78%), Serbia (75%), the Netherlands (76%), and Montenegro (72%).

At the other end of the scale, the lowest proportions of immigrant students expecting to obtain higher education are observed in France (44% for both generations), Slovenia (45% and 44%), and Germany (51% and 45%).

Patterns of Immigrant Optimism

When comparing natives and immigrants across countries, several distinct patterns emerge:

1.     Similar expectations among natives and immigrants – In Slovenia, Spain, Serbia, and the Czech Republic, both groups express roughly the same level of educational aspiration.

2.     First-generation optimism – In Finland, Germany, and the United States, first-generation immigrants are noticeably more likely than both natives and second-generation immigrants to expect a university degree.

3.     Second-generation optimism – In France and the Netherlands, expectations rise in the second generation: native and first-generation students have similar aspirations, but second-generation immigrants show greater optimism.

4.     Strong immigrant optimism across generations – In the United Kingdom and Austria, both first- and second-generation immigrants show higher educational expectations than natives.

5.     First-generation pessimism – In Italy, Croatia, and Montenegro, first-generation immigrant students are less likely than both natives and second-generation immigrants to expect higher education.

Overall, these data show in some countries, optimism appears to fade over generations, as families adapt to the host country’s social and educational realities. In others, aspirations remain strong across generations, suggesting that immigrants continue to see education as a viable route for upward mobility.

But this raises another question: Are these optimistic expectations grounded in actual possibilities for mobility?

To explore that, we need to look at how these aspirations compare with parents’ educational levels  and whether immigrant students are more likely than natives to aim above their parents’ level.

Immigrant Optimism — Version 2: Mobility Patterns

Country-Level Comparison

So far, we’ve looked separately at what parents have achieved and what their children aspire to.But the most interesting perspective appears when we compare these two measures  the share of students expecting higher education and the share of parents who already have it.

Native pupils

Among native students, the relationship between parental education and children’s aspirations reveals a rather conservative picture.In most countries, the share of students expecting to obtain higher education is not higher and often even lower than the share of parents who already have it.

Only a few countries show clear signs of upward aspiration, such as Greece (81%), Serbia (73%), and Montenegro (74%), where young people still tend to aim beyond their parents’ level of education.In the majority of countries, however, the pattern is one of stability or decline.

The Netherlands, Finland, Germany, and Slovenia stand out as cases where the proportion of native students expecting higher education is lower than the proportion of parents who already have it.This suggests a generational shift toward more cautious or pragmatic expectations perhaps reflecting the limited returns of higher education, a saturated labour market, or disillusionment with traditional academic pathways.

In Germany, Finland, and the United Kingdom, the share of students aspiring to university is around 50% or even below, showing a relatively weak belief in education as a path for upward mobility.

Overall, the data for native students indicate that in many developed education systems, educational optimism has plateaued. Rather than striving for more, young people increasingly reproduce their parents’ educational level a sign of social stability for some, but potentially a warning signal for societies relying on human capital growth.

To some extent, this pattern can be explained by the already high educational level of parents in many countries: when a large share of adults already hold higher education degrees, the scope for upward mobility naturally narrows.

Immigrant pupils

When looking at immigrant students, the picture becomes more complex. Across most countries, children of immigrants tend to aspire to higher education more often than their parents actually have it, showing signs of upward ambition.

However, this optimism differs notably between first- and second-generation immigrants.

Among the first generation, expectations are generally high. In Austria (81%), the United States (80%), and Serbia (72%), the share of students who expect to obtain higher education clearly exceeds that of parents with higher education.These results suggest a strong “immigrant optimism” , a belief in education as a pathway to integration and success in the new country.

At the same time, not all countries show this pattern. In Germany, Czech, Italy and Slovenia expectations remain low, roughly corresponding to the parental level or even lower.

Among second-generation immigrant students, a similar picture emerges. In most countries, the share of students expecting higher education remains higher than that of their parents, indicating the persistence of aspiration across generations.However, the gap tends to narrow compared to the first generation.

The strongest optimism among second-generation students is observed in Serbia, Montenegro, Greece, USA. In these countries, educational ambition among immigrant youth is high, even though their parents’ education levels are still considerably lower than those of natives.

In contrast, several countries show little or no growth in the share of students expecting higher education and in some cases, expectations are even lower than the educational level of their parents. This pattern is visible in Germany, Finland and Slovenia, where the the proportion of second-generation immigrant pupils aspiring to higher education is barely higher and in some cases even lower than that of their parents with higher education.

Conclusion

PISA provides a remarkably rich dataset, and even when we look only at such simple indicators as parental education and students’ expectations, we can already see a complex picture of social mobility, adaptation, and belief in education.

Of course, this analysis is based on descriptive statistics, and a more detailed, multivariate approach would be needed to fully understand the mechanisms behind these patterns.Yet even this simple descriptive view offers valuable insights showing how differences in aspirations and educational backgrounds can reveal broader social and institutional dynamics across countries.

These patterns suggest that some countries may face serious challenges both in terms of immigrant integration and the future of higher education, which in turn will shape their long-term economic development.

First, in several countries, there is a large gap in parental education levels between second-generation immigrants and natives.This may point to difficulties in social adaptation and persistent structural barriers.The largest gaps are observed in Greece, Slovenia, the United States, France, and Germany, where second-generation immigrant families remain well behind native families in terms of parental education.

Second, some countries show low educational aspirations overall, both among natives and immigrants. This is especially visible in Germany, Italy, Slovenia. In these countries, fewer children expect to complete higher education than in most others suggesting a weakening belief in education as a path to upward mobility.

Third, in some countries even native students expect less education than their parents already have.This generational decline in expectations may be an early sign of stagnation within national education systems.

Taken together, the data suggest that Germany, in particular, may face multiple risks:

• a low share of immigrant parents with higher education, especially among the second generation;

• a low proportion of students aspiring to higher education, among both natives and immigrants;

• and a decline in aspirations among natives, where children expect to achieve less than their parents.

In this context, immigrant optimism (or the lack of it) both in comparison with natives and with parents clearly deserves more detailed investigation. These descriptive results already reveal meaningful cross-country differences, but a deeper analysis is needed to understand the mechanisms behind them.